Staging — Analysis · Not Production

US State TAM & Penetration

2026-07-16 · Shopify 44,855 US orders ($36.5M all-time, deduped) · GA4 region×channel 90d · Meta geo spend 90d · ACS 2023 household income

US TAM (Model)

$271M

HH>$200K × 1.5% pen × $1,300 AOV

Captured

~2.4%

≈$6.5M US run-rate

CA Revenue Share

27.8%

all-time → 22.8% YTD → 21.9% L90

CA Demand Base

15.0%

share of US HH >$200K

#1 Target

then TX · IL · NC · CT

Verdict on the CA-concentration theory: partially confirmed — it's legacy, not current spend. CA's revenue share (27.8% all-time) runs ~2× its demand base (15% of US high-income households), but today's Meta spend is only mildly CA-tilted (19.2%) and CA's paid-session share (12.5%) is below its base. The over-index is the historic organic flywheel (LA-born brand, word-of-mouth, repeat buyers) — and it's already unwinding on its own: 27.8% → 22.8% YTD → 21.9% last 90 days. Meanwhile organic demand quality elsewhere matches or beats CA.

CA Organic $/Sess

$6.73

the baseline

CT Organic $/Sess

$10.33

highest in US · pen idx 72

NJ Organic $/Sess

$8.57

best big state · pen idx 36

NY Penetration Idx

111

NY, not CA, is the ceiling

State table — top 25 by all-time revenue

Penetration index = all-time revenue per high-income household, CA = 100. Priority = 0.55×untapped base + 0.30×organic $/sess (shrunk) + 0.15×YTD growth on ≥$30K base.

State	All-Time Rev	2026 YTD	YoY	L90 Rev	L90 AOV	Sess 90d	$/Sess	Org $/Sess	HH >$200K	Pen Idx	Priority	Status

Deduped by order ID (since_id pagination); excludes test/cancelled/voided/refunded and non-US shipping. GA4 revenue used for relative $/session only (attribution gaps vs Shopify). HH>$200K from ACS 2023 1-yr B19001 (thousands). Meta spend by delivery region, last 90d, $320K US total.

Top 5 expansion targets

Below the CA/NY/FL saturated tier. Suggested geo test: ~30% of US Meta budget → $400/day TX · $350/day NJ+CT ("NYC halo") · $300/day IL+NC. Read at 30/60 days: scale if state CAC ≤ 0.35×AOV and organic $/sess rises; kill if organic $/sess flat and CAC > 0.5×AOV.

1 New Jersey

Pen Idx36HH>$200K607KOrg $/Sess$8.57YTD YoY+21%

Highest big-state organic conversion quality in the country. The MTD dip (−27%) is a spend gap, not a demand gap — when NJ traffic arrives unpaid, it buys at 27% above CA's rate. NYC-metro adjacency makes this the cheapest brand-halo extension available. Bundle with CT as one "NYC halo" ad set.

2 Texas

Pen Idx53HH>$200K1,164KOrg $/Sess$4.19YTD YoY+36%

Largest untapped absolute base in America: 549K un-penetrated high-income households — more than half of CA's entire base sitting at half CA's penetration. Already compounding (+77% MTD). Big enough to run as its own ad set and exit learning phase.

3 Illinois

Pen Idx42HH>$200K572KOrg $/Sess$6.44YTD YoY+25%

Chicago metro is an NY-like buyer profile: organic $/sess nearly at CA level with 42% of its penetration. Gets only 3.8% of Meta spend today. Cheapest large-metro CPMs of the five.

4 North Carolina

Pen Idx32HH>$200K370KOrg $/Sess$5.51YTD YoY+45%

Charlotte/Raleigh wealth growth, +45% YTD on a real base, organic $/sess above national mean ($5.28). Low coastal-metro ad competition. Pair with IL in a shared geo ad set if budget-constrained.

5 Connecticut

Pen Idx72HH>$200K222KOrg $/Sess$10.33YTD YoY+48%

The single hottest demand signal in the dataset: $10.33 organic per session (1.5× CA) and $1,361 L90 AOV. Small base, so run it inside the NJ "NYC halo" ad set rather than standalone.

Watch list & passes

PA — 394K untapped HH and the +413% MTD spike Max saw (AOV $1,634), but only +2% YTD: spiky, not yet a trend. Promote if it holds 60 days. VA/OH — big untapped bases (364K/278K), solid +38-39% YoY, next in line. MA — pass despite 478K HH: organic $/sess just $2.94 and −2% YTD, demand is genuinely weak, not underfed. TN — pass: −17% YTD, $1.24 org/sess.

Measurement plan (existing infra)

Weekly — state $/session + organic $/session via GA4 region×sessionDefaultChannelGroup (same JWT pattern as intl monitoring). Organic $/sess is the demand thermometer: it should rise in target states as paid builds awareness.
Weekly — Shopify state revenue, AOV, new-customer share. New share in targets already runs 72–81%, so these are acquisition markets, not repeat-only.
Monthly — geo CAC: Meta region spend ÷ Shopify new customers by state. Read at 30/60 days; weekly geo CAC is noise at this AOV.
Add a US-state panel to the intl traffic monitor — same dashboard pattern, region dimension instead of country.